Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-07-18

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-06-26) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-06-26 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-26 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-26 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-26 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-26 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-26)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-26) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 299 (263 – 338) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -360 (32 – -27)
Albania 72 (56 – 86) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 68 (13 – -19)
Algeria 396 (351 – 444) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (7.6 – 16)
Andorra 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.4 (0 – 2.9) 3.4 (1.1 – -2.8)
Argentina 2458 (2321 – 2598) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 62 (33 – 440)
Armenia 559 (491 – 627) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -64 (75 – -22)
Australia 110 (89 – 128) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.5 (5 – 15)
Austria 97 (76 – 115) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9.3 (5.8 – 24)
Azerbaijan 584 (526 – 640) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 49 (23 – -250)
Bahrain 545 (496 – 603) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 190 (34 – -55)
Bangladesh 3698 (3466 – 3886) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 100 (52 – 1600)
Belarus 322 (288 – 360) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -24 (-100 – -13)
Belgium 104 (83 – 120) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 15 (8 – 110)
Benin 54 (37 – 68) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 81 (11 – -15)
Bolivia 1179 (1057 – 1289) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (19 – 67)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 160 (135 – 180) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (9.2 – 63)
Brazil 39324 (36834 – 41975) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 50 (39 – 69)
Bulgaria 147 (122 – 171) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (13 – -56)
Cameroon 155 (104 – 204) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 66 (7.5 – -9.7)
Canada 320 (283 – 353) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 62 (21 – -62)
Cape Verde 48 (34 – 60) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 19 (7.3 – -32)
Central African Republic 81 (64 – 98) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -45 (26 – -12)
Chad 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.2) 4.4 (1.5 – -4.4)
Chile 3623 (3399 – 3871) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -53 (-150 – -32)
China 18 (10 – 25) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -18 (13 – -5.5)
Colombia 3826 (3562 – 4118) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 31 (24 – 45)
Congo 53 (41 – 67) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 15 (6.7 – -46)
Costa Rica 268 (232 – 293) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.6 – 19)
Cote dIvoire 275 (238 – 310) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 37 (16 – -110)
Croatia 71 (52 – 86) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (8.6 – -43)
Cuba 9 (2 – 14) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 2) 7 (2.6 – -10)
Czechia 152 (130 – 174) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 50 (14 – -32)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 94 (74 – 112) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -16 (-120 – -8.6)
Denmark 20 (13 – 28) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -9.4 (160 – -4.5)
Djibouti 22 (13 – 29) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 8.7 (4 – -31)
Dominican Republic 918 (806 – 1013) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 28)
Ecuador 1003 (906 – 1094) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 22)
Egypt 1487 (1372 – 1596) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 90 (39 – -290)
El Salvador 254 (227 – 281) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (14 – 330)
Equatorial Guinea 159 (114 – 201) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 7.5 (4.5 – 22)
Estonia 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.7 (0.4 – 3) 4.5 (1.4 – -3.9)
Ethiopia 165 (141 – 187) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -120 (30 – -20)
Finland 11 (3 – 17) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 26 (4.4 – -6.6)
France 523 (477 – 568) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (17 – -220)
Gabon 69 (54 – 82) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -14 (-80 – -7.3)
Germany 403 (359 – 439) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -29 (-170 – -16)
Ghana 473 (423 – 527) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (18 – 310)
Greece 25 (13 – 34) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 15 (5.2 – -18)
Guatemala 931 (819 – 1031) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (8.7 – 15)
Guinea 44 (29 – 55) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -66 (14 – -9.3)
Guinea Bissau 26 (17 – 36) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 6.7 (3.6 – 50)
Haiti 73 (56 – 90) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -22 (55 – -9.2)
Honduras 908 (825 – 986) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 24 (16 – 44)
Hungary 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 14 (3.6 – -7.4)
Iceland 7 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 6.6 (2.2 – -7.1)
India 22371 (20740 – 24085) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (19 – 24)
Indonesia 1460 (1337 – 1583) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (16 – 34)
Iran 2667 (2479 – 2862) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 59 (35 – 210)
Iraq 2279 (2116 – 2471) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 43 (28 – 95)
Ireland 13 (7 – 19) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 15 (4.3 – -11)
Israel 888 (793 – 974) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.4 (7.5 – 12)
Italy 200 (170 – 231) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -29 (130 – -13)
Japan 155 (127 – 180) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7 – 23)
Kazakhstan 3516 (3288 – 3765) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 6.7 (5 – 10)
Kenya 271 (240 – 299) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (12 – 69)
Kosovo 95 (79 – 111) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 31 (11 – -41)
Kuwait 749 (680 – 822) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 100 (32 – -90)
Kyrgyzstan 378 (340 – 411) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 39)
Latvia 6 (0 – 14) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.4 – 3.1) 3.6 (1.4 – -6.5)
Lebanon 23 (13 – 31) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -880 (8.1 – -7.8)
Libya 39 (26 – 48) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (7.1 – -20)
Lithuania 6 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 7.3 (2.2 – -6.1)
Luxembourg 42 (31 – 55) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 9.2 (4.8 – 120)
Madagascar 107 (86 – 125) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (8 – 110)
Malawi 88 (69 – 103) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (8 – -930)
Malaysia 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -40 (5.3 – -4.2)
Maldives 23 (13 – 30) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 24 (6.1 – -12)
Mali 31 (21 – 42) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 39 (7.9 – -13)
Mauritania 137 (108 – 161) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -29 (51 – -11)
Mexico 5940 (5460 – 6418) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 38 (25 – 72)
Moldova 241 (210 – 274) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -37 (100 – -16)
Mongolia 7 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.6 – 2.8) 6.3 (1.9 – -4.7)
Montenegro 44 (31 – 56) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 8.5 (4.7 – 43)
Morocco 322 (275 – 368) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 54 (18 – -58)
Namibia 37 (25 – 48) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 9.6 (4.9 – 190)
Nepal 482 (435 – 524) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (55 – -28)
Netherlands 65 (50 – 78) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -39 (24 – -11)
New Zealand 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.5) 10 (2 – -3.1)
Niger 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) 91 (3.3 – -3.6)
Nigeria 624 (565 – 681) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 84 (29 – -93)
North Macedonia 141 (119 – 162) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 5600 (22 – -22)
Norway 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 35 (5.9 – -9.1)
Oman 1216 (1108 – 1324) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 87 (33 – -130)
Pakistan 3826 (3601 – 4087) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 84 (39 – -650)
Palestine 315 (283 – 345) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.5 – 23)
Panama 965 (873 – 1041) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 30 (19 – 66)
Paraguay 57 (40 – 71) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -13 (180 – -6.5)
Peru 3555 (3303 – 3815) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 140 (52 – -210)
Philippines 934 (860 – 1015) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (20 – 75)
Poland 305 (265 – 343) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 61 (20 – -60)
Portugal 355 (312 – 398) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 78 (24 – -58)
Puerto Rico 104 (85 – 120) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 130 (16 – -22)
Qatar 812 (751 – 876) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -36 (-130 – -21)
Romania 398 (352 – 446) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (15 – 140)
Russia 7046 (6601 – 7476) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 190 (65 – -200)
Rwanda 28 (16 – 38) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 1600 (9.3 – -9.2)
Saudi Arabia 4059 (3799 – 4313) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (27 – 54)
Senegal 118 (100 – 137) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 52 (14 – -32)
Serbia 309 (268 – 343) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.2 – 16)
Sierra Leone 20 (10 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 27 (5.7 – -10)
Singapore 187 (164 – 214) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 1400 (25 – -25)
Slovakia 18 (10 – 26) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 14 (4.5 – -13)
Somalia 16 (9 – 23) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 130 (6.2 – -6.7)
South Africa 8738 (7969 – 9480) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (13 – 16)
South Korea 52 (39 – 65) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 31 (8.8 – -22)
South Sudan 15 (7 – 22) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -33 (8.6 – -5.6)
Spain 286 (252 – 320) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -43 (90 – -18)
Sri Lanka 10 (3 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -48 (5.5 – -4.4)
Sudan 73 (57 – 87) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -23 (47 – -9.3)
Suriname 21 (12 – 29) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -330 (8.7 – -8.2)
Sweden 784 (721 – 851) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -13 (-18 – -10)
Switzerland 98 (77 – 115) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.6 (5.5 – 20)
Tajikistan 54 (39 – 66) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -150 (15 – -12)
Thailand 7 (2 – 12) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.2) 6.7 (2.4 – -8.1)
Tunisia 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 6.4 (2.1 – -5.9)
Turkey 1289 (1186 – 1375) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 1800 (62 – -65)
Uganda 14 (7 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 69 (5.8 – -7.2)
Ukraine 925 (843 – 1012) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 64 (29 – -280)
United Arab Emirates 556 (494 – 626) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (12 – 35)
United Kingdom 629 (576 – 675) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -16 (-24 – -12)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (4 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.6 (32 – -3.7)
United States of America 50471 (46954 – 54073) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (18 – 22)
Uzbekistan 316 (277 – 355) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (12 – 48)
Venezuela 265 (237 – 292) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (14 – 380)
Western Sahara 63 (45 – 75) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 2.7 (1.3 – -23)
Yemen 24 (13 – 33) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -130 (9 – -7.9)
Zambia 23 (13 – 31) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 10 (4.4 – -37)
Zimbabwe 25 (13 – 33) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 8 (3.8 – -61)